You're Being INSTRUCTED Not To Notice This!! Peter Zeihan (2023)

Introduction

You're Being INSTRUCTED Not To Notice This!! Peter Zeihan

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Content

And it's starting to sink in in turkey that if anyone is going to do anything to look out for Turkish national interests and they're near abroad, it absolutely has to be turkey, because no one else is going to do it.

And one of the things that we have forgotten in this world is that turkey is not an Arab country.

Turkey Turkey is not a European country.

Turkey is Turkish.

It is an independent pole in international affairs.

It hasn't been since World War II.

It has been subsumed into the American Alliance network, but now that the American Alliance network is no more, the Turks are realizing a little belatedly that their neighborhood to do with as they choose doesn't mean it's risk-free, doesn't mean that they won't have pushback.

But if there is going to be a settlement in Syria that they like, they are going to have to be the ones who settle it and then be responsible for it, and what is going on in Northern Syria right now is exactly that.

The Turks are waking up rediscovering the tools of power that are necessary to counter countries like Iran and Russia, who have been educated against the international order for so much longer.

The Turks realize now that this is entirely up to them.

One of the things about the global order.

One of the defining characteristics is the Americans, basically told the whole world that geography doesn't matter anymore, we're going to patrol the oceans for everyone, so you don't need a Navy we're going to guarantee raw material and Market access for everyone.

So you don't have to do that for yourself, and this enabled countries the world over to access raw materials and energy on one side and finished goods and consumer markets on the other side and expand and develop and urbanize and modernize in ways they never could have before.

But those two countries are two countries that absolutely have right-sized militaries for their needs and they're waking up the fastest I would say that the countries that are slowest to recognize the change are the ones that have been banging their head against the order for so long.

China has only been successful because the Americans have ended the Imperial order and allowed Global markets.

The Chinese have never had the capacity to do that for themselves.

They certainly don't Newt.

Now, their Navy is only capable of maybe capturing Taiwan.

They can't protect super tankers in the Persian Gulf, much less cargo shipments going all the way to Europe or North America.

They just utterly lack the capacity but they're starting to believe their own propaganda, which is setting up for a catastrophic fall.

Well, the countries that have benefited the most are definitely Germany and China I mean here are two countries that are geographically constrained any time that they tend to have an economic moment.

They scare everyone around them into forming a coalition to tear them down, and so their their moments in the sun historically have been briefed to non-existent.

What really sets these two apart now is how integrated they've become with the wider world and with each other in an era where the Americans have removed security concerns from the table put those security concerns back on the table and everything that is made.

The German and the Chinese systems thrive in the past 70 years really goes away overnight.

So we're going to see some spectacular collapses in those two countries in the not too distant future for banging the head against the order.

The better countries to look at are probably Iran and Russia.

Now the global order was formed to face down the Soviet Union, so the Russians are pretty obvious there, but Iran the United States doesn't use a lot of Persian Gulf oil never has what happens.

Is the oil flows out of the Persian Gulf to fuel, global trade and global trade is what gives the Americans their Alliance Network and the alliance network is what gives the Americans their security? Well, the Americans are now defining security differently.

They've, never really used the trade courtesy of the Shale Revolution.

They don't care about the oil, so everything that's kind of kept.

The Americans bound to this region is now gone, which means that Iran has gone from fighting the order, because the Americans are in charge of it to all of a sudden being one of the countries that is most dependent upon Freedom of the Seas.

The Iranian Navy wouldn't do well in a bathtub, and it certainly can't protect outgoing cargo shipments.

It's Americans that have allowed that to happen, I mean the idea of the order was so holistic that the United States even protected the shipping of countries that it was bombing at the time, and so Iran has gone from a country that hates everything about the global order that the American lead to all of a sudden, be one of its biggest beneficiaries, and the same goes for the Russians, the Russians export raw Commodities, whether it's oil or natural gas or Timber or iron ore, or whatever it happens to be all of that- requires a Placid International environment.

So when the Americans step back and countries start taking matters into their own hands, these countries that have so reflexively fought everything about the International System for decades.

All of a sudden they're going to discover that there are two of the countries that are going to suffer the most when the Americans are gone and I would love to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin when the polar Bureau of Russia realizes that they're, not there yet they're too stuck in their own ideology.

They've been thinking this way for too long, but it's coming it's coming soon.

Well, it's pretty depressing one of the things that happens when you modernize and industrialize is you bring in a lot of new inputs that make your industries more effective, so you bring in electricity and steel in order to make an industrial base, for example, I'd, say: there's no part of the Chinese system that is sustainable without ongoing, deep International connections.

This is a country that, while it has some resources, is not exactly resource rich and it certainly doesn't have enough for a billion people, but the single biggest impact that is just going to be so dramatic that it's going to be painful, is about 80 percent of the world's calories that are produced are produced with imported inputs.

Whether that happens to be a diesel, fuel or fertilizer pesticide, you know that whole package and China is now the world's largest energy importer.

So there is no version of a world where the Americans are not providing the security in which the Chinese export machine continues and honestly, where the Chinese diet is able to survive in its current form.

So you're, looking at a catastrophic reduction in the quality of life in China, complete with going back to the famines that predominated in the world before 1960.

Remember that the Chinese were admitted to the american-led order when Nixon went to China and met with MAO, we turned them against the Soviets and it worked out great all around, but under President XI that the Chinese I don't want to say anything is you know gauche as they've forgotten their place, but they seem to have forgotten why they were able to get to where they are and how Central the Americans were to that, and it's not that the Americans are setting up to punish the Chinese.

The Americans are just done, we're leaving we're just dropping the ball and there's no one with the capacity to pick it up.

So you look at a country like China and you've got the one child policy.

So you know there are no consumers.

You know that Workforce is becoming thin and worker costs are going up.

You look at their energy markets.

They import roughly 80 85 percent of what they need that goes away.

You look at their agricultural markets.

They can't maintain the food output that they've got right now.

That means they've got too many people, even as they're aging into Mass retirement.

You look at their military structure.

Sure they've got a lot of ships on paper, but they don't have the capacity to reach beyond the first island chain.

They can't guarantee their own trade much less become a global hegemon.

The Japanese have almost of these problems.

They're on the first island chain, they're, not Mainland, they're facing East they're, not constrained.

They've got a blue water Navy, that's worthy of the name.

It's the second most powerful navy in the world.

The Blue Water Navy is basically one that can sail almost anywhere around the world.

The Chinese Navy really only has a range of about a thousand miles.

Now they do have a handful of surface combatants that can go further than that, but not without any sort of significant support.

In addition, they've got to if they want to go anywhere important they've got to Sail by a lot of rival countries, Korea Taiwan, China, Indonesia, Singapore, Pakistan India.

You know this is problematic, whereas the Japanese, if they want to reach the Western Hemisphere, all they have to do, is set sail and there's no one between them in the west coast of the Americas.

So the Japanese have a higher capacity.

They have lower need, they've got greater reach and they don't have to conquer anyone along the way.

It's just easier.

You add in the fact that their Navy is Blue Water, and that means they can engage the Chinese at the time and place if they're choosing in order to extract the maximum pain or the maximum concessions, it's yeah absolutely anywhere they want.

Now.

If I was a betting, man, I would say that they'd probably do that somewhere in the Indian Ocean, where there's absolutely no possibility that the Chinese can provide any sort of land-based support.

That would be the easiest.

No must no fuss any sort of War would probably be over in a few weeks.

That's a really messy question.

There are very few countries that have the naval capacity to even reach the Persian Gulf in any sort of meaningful volume.

So you've got the Brits, the French, maybe the Turks, but that's largely because they border the area via land, the Japanese in a reach in an absolutely ideal scenario, the Chinese and that's about it.

So what happens? What'll probably happen is without the Americans to limit competition among the local Powers is eventually you'll get a fight between the Saudis and the Iranians over the future of the region.

But it's not like outside powers can just sit by oil is not something's like.

Oh we're not going to need any for the next six months.

So we'll just wait for this to sort out and deal with the winner.

No, no! No! No! No, if you want fuel, if you want electricity, you've got to go and you've got to go now.

You've got to maintain a supply, so you'll get all these Powers, who can maybe just barely reach the region, but can't really impose a reality on it.

In the way the United States can keep in mind that the United States has had an aircraft carrier battle group in the Gulf almost constantly from 1950 until 2015.

It's only recently that we've stopped doing that.